Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Financial Market Jitters

I was going to write a post about something I call "The Tuque Test," but the free fall in the financial markets is proving to be too much of a distraction. This is how I feel right now:

I hope you all are holding up better. I try to remain calm at times like this, although it's tough. I bought voraciously during the 2001-2003 dip and was handsomely rewarded. I'm getting ready to do so again, although I'm going to wait a month or so to see how things shake out.

I have some advice for my Canadian friends: get ready to buy U.S. large cap equities. I'm pessimistic about the Canadian markets. The 2004-2007 M&A wave gutted corporate headquarters and the high loonie is having a deleterious affect on manufacturing activity in Central Canada. Canada is increasingly dependent upon its natural resources. That's great as long as prices for commodities are high. It's going to get ugly when commodities prices start to tank, something that we're already starting to see.

U.S. equity markets have lagged the rest of the world for the last four years, and large cap stocks have been especially sluggish. This stuff is all cyclical, though. When things start to turn positive again in six to nine months, watch for U.S. large cap equities to outperform.

And yes, I'll be putting my money where my mouth is!

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